Historic, dominant Fraser River sockeye run collapses, called ‘disastrous’

Sixteen years ago the Fraser River saw more than 28M sockeye salmon return for its dominant run. This year, just four life cycles later the run has collapsed to 2.8M fish leaving just as many, if not more, questions about the state of the species.

 

The Fraser River's dominant sockeye run has collapsed this year, falling so far below expectations that commercial fishers will get no opening and some First Nations food, social and ceremonial fisheries have closed earlier than expected.

“The fish are missing, in a nutshell,” said Ladner-based comercial fisher Darin Chung, a 40-year veteran of the nets and lines.

The 53-year-old, who began fishing as a teen, is among a chorus of others in the industry—be it recreational, commercial or First Nations—forced to speculate on what has happened.

“Everybody’s scratching their heads right now,” said Jesse Zeman, executive director of the B.C. Wildlife Federation.

Last winter the Pacific Salmon Commission estimated 7.7 million sockeye would return to the river. The commission is an organizing body for several regional panels of stakeholder groups from Alaska, Washington state and B.C. that assess sockeye stocks and opening rights under a treaty.

But as the summer rolled along the estimates became thinner and thinner and now stand at 2.8 million or just 36 per cent of the original estimate, as of Aug. 25.

“The big thing for this season is everyone had high expectations that there would be plenty of harvest opportunities for everyone. But they have seen that very quickly disappear,” said Fiona Martens, the commission’s director of fisheries management programs.

Sockeye salmon live within a four-year life cycle. After they spawn in the river’s tributaries their fry develop in freshwater and eventually swim out to the Pacific Ocean and return four years later to spawn a new cycle.

The fish come in four “management groups”: Early Stuart, Early Summer, Summer and Late Summer. This year the dominant Summer group is down 65 per cent, from an estimated 4.3 million fish to 1.5 million fish.

In 2022, the commission counted 6.6 million sockeye after a pre-run estimate of 9.7 million. The commission counted 1.6 million sockeye caught and retained, including about 318,000 from Washington state, 228,000 by Canadian commercial fishers and 837,000 by First Nations fishers for food, social and ceremonial (FSC) purposes. This left about 3.5 million spawners, after adjusting for factors such as en route mortality.

In 2018, 11 million sockeye were counted. Of those, 4.1 million escaped to spawn and 5.9 million were caught, including three million by Canadian commercial fishers and 835,000 by First Nations fishers. The figures do not add directly to the total run size because the commission also makes adjustments for factors such as en route mortality and estimated unreported or illegal catches.

This run was the offspring of the more than 5.9 million sockeye that were left to spawn following the large 18.9 million run in 2014. That run was the beneficiary of 13.1 million spawners in 2010 thanks to a 28.2 million run.

A Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) spokesperson said in an Aug. 20 email that the commission reported an abundance “enough to meet conservation targets and limited priority FSC fisheries in the Fraser River.”

But as of Aug. 25 the commission’s Fraser River Panel slashed its expectations by another one million sockeye and set its spawning escapement target at 2.8 million, or the entire amount it now expects this season.

Martens said Washington state fishers are typically reserved about 16.5 per cent of the allowable catch and, to date, have taken 31,680 while First Nations in Canada have caught 185,240.

Martens said sockeye runs can vary in timing but the commission is now sure that the run will be historically low based on test fisheries in the ocean.

“The timing for these fish is much earlier than normal. Because they're earlier, the more confident we are that the run size is not there, which means there’s no harvest opportunities,” said Martens.

Martens said this run has seen far more sockeye turn up in the Juan de Fuca Strait to the south of Vancouver Island, as opposed to the Johnstone Strait, to the north.

“Why they did that, we do not know,” said Martens.

So far, said Martens, the commission has not observed any particular reason for this year’s collapse.

“We know there is en route loss from environmental factors,” such as impacts on marine and freshwater changes, including warmer water temperatures.

“But just in general, productivity levels are substantially declining,” said Martens.

Martens also said there is no indication that the 2022 run was overfished.

“The available harvest in 2022 was about 2.4 million but the total catch was 1.5 million. So I don’t think it has to do with overharvesting,” said Martens.

However, Chung, who represents the interests of commercial fishers to a DFO consultation group, said if there is one reason for the collapse it has to be overfishing.

He said when numbers begin coming in so low, all fisheries must adhere to conservation efforts.

Chung notes the non-dominant 2025 run was over nine million, up from the pre-season estimate of 2.9 million. He attributed this to extremely limited fisheries in the previous four cycles (16 years). For instance, in 2021 commercial fishers caught about 7,000 sockeye and First Nations only caught about 6,500.

“It’s the same waters, the same temperatures, the only difference is how these runs have been managed by DFO,” said Chung.

Martens said DFO reports illegal catches to the commission and while it is a concern, the majority of run adjustments have to do with challenging migration conditions.

The department maintains it conducts enforcement of illegal fishing although its online list of current enforcement efforts does not include activity on the Fraser.

Marine mammals could be at play

According to associate professor Murdoch McAllister at the University of B.C. Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, another problem has potentially been identified through recent and ongoing analysis.

“We’ve done a very thorough analysis of factors impacting salmon populations. The stats show the biggest factor … is seal and sea lion predation,” said McAllister.

Since seals were protected under Canada’s Marine Mammal Regulations in the 1970s, their populations in the Strait of Georgia has grown to 50,000 in recent years.

McAllister said First Nations no longer cull seals and sea lions on the West Coast, and public perception of a seal hunt has so far prevented the policy option from reaching serious discussion.

In 1970 DFO counted about 5,000 Steller sea lions off B.C.’s coast, while the peak population in 2017 was estimated to be 52,000.

McAllister said the average sea lion eats 18 kilograms of seafood per day.

“The biggest colonies are on the northern tip of Vancouver Island where the sockeye come around the corner. They take in 400,000 tonnes of fish or more. It doesn’t take a big percentage of sockeye to have an impact,” McAllister said.

“It’s a management choice. It’s a societal choice. People love to see baby seals, they’re so cute. And there is ecotourism.

“Maybe people don't want as much salmon but want seals and sea lions? But given what our studies are saying, we can’t have it both ways,” said McAllister.

In 2018, the U.S. allowed a cull of California and Steller sea lions along the Columbia River and its tributaries to protect endangered salmon, McAllister said.

A transborder all-First Nations seal and sea lion hunt is what retired Washington state-based First Nations fisher Thomas Sewid is lobbying DFO for as president of Pacific Balance Marine Management Inc.

Sewid is highly critical of Canada’s management of salmon on all fronts and described this year’s Adams River run—one of the Fraser watershed’s most important sockeye runs—as “disastrous.”

Meanwhile, Bristol Bay in Alaska is poised to receive more than 43 million sockeye salmon this summer, according to official reports.

“Canada needs to take lessons from the U.S. on how to manage sockeye. DFO has mismanaged what few sockeye runs B.C. has. Overfishing by commercial sectors, allowing fishing in lakes, and no significant monitoring and enforcement of First Nations FSC fisheries,” he said.

Business in Vancouver reached out to the First Nations Fisheries Council and Adams Lake Indian Band (the end of the line for most sockeye) for its perspectives on the sockeye collapse. They did not respond prior to publication.